Introduction

1Tourism has become a significant force in contemporary societies over the past century, particularly gaining momentum in the latter half (Urry, 1996; Higgins-Desbiolles, 2006; Croes, Ridderstaat, and Shapoval, 2020; Pimentel et al., 2023). This surge coincides with the rise of post-industrial societies (Touraine, 1969), establishing tourism as a new sector in the global economy and a social practice expanding alongside capitalism (Harvey, 1992; Cesar-Dachary, 2015; Pimentel, 2022). Its growth is driven by a set of factors such as socio-cultural, economic, and technological acceleration (Rosa, 2019), along with productive advancements (Paula and Paes, 2021), the social and international division of labor (César-Dachary, Arnaiz-Burne, and César-Arnaiz, 2017), and an increasing demand for leisure time among workers (Veal, 2019; Zuzanek, 2020a).

2For many countries, the tourism sector is seen as having the potential to foster development (De Kadt, 1984; Croes et al., 2020; Pimentel et al., 2023). However, as noted previously (Pimentel et al., 2024), there is a systemic contradiction in using tourism as a development tool. On one hand, it is viewed as a means to generate income for social purposes, such as poverty alleviation and job creation. On the other hand, to attract tourism, scaling up production and adhering to neoliberal management principles are necessary. This expansion requires a growing number of tourists and stakeholders throughout the tourism supply chain, reinforcing these principles to maintain or increase tourist flow.

3This dynamic gives rise to a complex system, where interactive dynamics among actors shape and stabilize organizational and institutional processes. Thus, a sort of “field” (e.g. Bourdieu), “system” (e.g. Luhmann) or “diffuse process” (e.g. Foucault) arises, in which the interactive dynamics of the actors in contact, inserted in the same copresence situation, will progressively structure and stabilize organizational and institutional processes in a quasi-self-referential form (Pimentel, 2012; 2018; 2024). This quasi-self-referential system gradually creates its own imperatives, adding some new ones or modifying preexisting ones, raising questions about previous dependence on economic resources.

4Initially, this is due to the integration of tourism into a Super Macroeconomic and Political Structure (hereafter SMPS), such as the world-system economy (Amin, 1974; Gunder Frank, 1978; Arrighi, 1994; Wallerstein, 2000), and the establishment of a distinct Political Economy of Tourism (hereafter PET) (Britton, 1991; Mosedale, 2016; Bianchi, 2018). Aligned with the overarching SMPS of capitalism (César-Dachary, Arnaiz-Burne & Arnaiz-César, 2017), PET helps elucidate the intricate interplay between tourism and broader economic frameworks. Examining the international division of labor within tourism reveals how countries’ positions and roles within the SMPS—particularly in relation to international tourism—profoundly shape the opportunities and constraints that a country, whether or not it is a tourism-based national system, encounters in the pre-existing global scenario, where resources and access to them are already established.

5In this context, the crafting and implementation of development strategies by national states assume paramount importance. It is through the enactment of public policies that a nation can recalibrate its position within the existing order, both domestically and internationally. However, public policies are inherently complex and contentious, constituting what is often termed as a “wicked problem” (Rittel y Webber, 1973; Head, 2022; Pimentel et al., 2024), characterized by cognitive asymmetry and value-laden preferences for particular solutions. Therefore, to stimulate development, a national state must cope with internal and external disparities and leverage its policy tools effectively.

7Theoretical and metatheoretical endeavors, as highlighted by Ritzer (2007), present a challenge within this subfield. One significant challenge involves elaborating metatheoretical bridges, grappling with the different levels of analysis, as well as combining different concepts and approaches. Despite theoretical contributions, existing approaches often employ single-level analyses, neglecting the complex interactions among various systems, structures, and mechanisms that shape our experienced reality (Brante, 2001a; 2001b; Vandenberghe, 2013). Thus, there remains a need for a more integrative and comprehensive analysis.

9Thus, in this conceptual paper, we develop a comprehensive analytical framework to examine the PET using the case of Brazil during the Workers Party Governments (Luís Inácio Lula da Silva 2003-2010 and Dilma Roussef (2011-2016). This period marked a notable increase in the tourism sector in Brazilian history, which constituted one of three distinct epochs of significant growth in inbound tourism (1970-1980; 1990-2000; 2002-2016). Our findings underscore that tourism in Brazil underwent profound quantitative and qualitative transformations during the analyzed period. However, the relative success achieved, in order to be repeated and sustained, remains anchored in (and, in our view, must continue within) a management perspective, to meet the systemic requirements—of the tourism system and the suprasystems in which it is embedded—which here manifest as conditioning factors of structure, institutions, and social action.

I. Neoliberal Order and Political Economy And/In Tourism

10Our starting point is given by the neoliberal order worldwide disseminated and assumed as a new doxa (Bourdieu, 2001; Harvey, 2005; Brown, 2015). Different intellectuals converge to this position. For example, Hart and Negri (2000), Boltanski and Chiapello (2009), Pierre Muller (2009), Brenner (2018), among others, show us, each one in your way, how we come together into an integrated world economy (Wallerstein, 1974; 2000), generating of “new global referential” (Muller, 1985; 2000; 2009; 2014) which shapes world’s imaginary.

11Assuming the existence and the role these macro structures – politic, economic, social, and cultural, etc. – then it follows that one need to make sense of how it works and how they impact our life. Any change – after all, a structural one, which is the case of the social collective institutionalized actions such of countries – must copy with this. Despite not being a sufficient condition (Bhaskar, 2005) for change, the possibility of knowledge (Vandenberghe, 2001) is a necessary condition (Bhaskar, 2005) for reaching successfully the changes.

15Nevertheless, there is a noticeable trend towards greater emphasis on tourism within national development agendas, where it is increasingly recognized as a significant and sometimes strategic economic pursuit. For example, in Latin America, empirical evidence often shows a tangible shift in the productive landscape, with nations allocating more space and resources to bolster this sector (Eddy, 2016; Pimentel, 2017; 2021; 2022). This phenomenon is not isolated but replicates itself across numerous countries, effectively becoming a global trend. Its adoption is most pronounced in peripheral nations, primarily due to their limited investment capacity and the comparatively lower capital outlay demanded by the tourism industry.

16However, there is no single formula for achieving these goals. Instead, given the human dependency on tourism sector; the asymmetrical level of development from the different countries; their needs, priorities and capacity of action; as well as the contextual (time-space) factors conditioning the possibilities of action, tourism public policies are emblematic examples of what are known as “wicked problems” (Rittel and Webber, 1973; Head, 2022; Pimentel et al., 2024) in public policy. These problems are marked by a lack of precise knowledge, diverse approaches, and different values or priorities attributed to tourism by various stakeholders, including residents, tourists, workers, managers, and policymakers (Head, 2022, p. 21).

18In recent decades, the paradigm of the PET has become more varied and complex, reflecting the multifaceted social relations of capitalism. There are three main conceptual currents within the political economy of tourism: one focused on state regulations and policy-making, rooted in the French regulation school; another based on post-modernism and post-structuralism, particularly interested in gender and identity issues; and the Marxist approach, centered on Marx’s labor theory of value. Despite their wide-ranging differences, all these approaches share the belief that the political and economic realms are inherently intertwined. Although the regulation school and post-structuralist politics have influenced tourism studies, the term “political economy” in this context generally refers to Marxist Political Economy. The Marxist approach effectively explains how tourism discourses and representations divert attention from economic and political power relations in tourism (Yrigoy, 2021).

19Analyzing how revenues—or, in Marxist terminology, surplus value—are created is the first necessary step to understanding the nature of tourism as a capitalist process. The political economy of tourism must examine the nature of tourism revenues to conduct a critical analysis of tourism and reveal underlying social inequalities and contradictions (Yrigoy, 2021). In this context, for example, Bianchi and Man (2020) criticize the principles of “inclusive growth” and “decent work” advocated by the WTO, as this narrative ignores the context of structural injustices that consolidate inequalities and reproduce exploitative labor practices, perpetuating a growth-oriented model of tourism development.

21In addition to the two major branches of classical and critical political economy, separated by an epistemological divide, Mosedale (2011) identifies four approaches in the study of PE (see table 1).

Table 1: four approaches in the study of Political Economy

Approach	Main characteristics
Marxism (Marxian political economy	 analyses relational processes of production, based on historical materialism, emphasizing production and materiality to comprehend societal history and power relations, and revealing the economic system’ structures;  Capitalism’ structure is dual (working class vs capitalists), based on inherent tensions, and on a competition for scarce resources;  Capitalism system tends to instability and periodic crises of over-accumulation or over-production. diffused and fragmented forms of dispersion of capital helps the capitalist system to acquire resilience
Regulation Theory	 focuses on the social relations of capitalist production system and regulatory responses to such changes, based on a fourfold framework given by the concepts of: a) regimes of accumulation, b) industrial trajectories (reflect changes in production influencing labor organization and accumulation regimes); c) modes of regulation and d) the hegemonic structure.  Choice of regulation mode depends on a country’s political, economic, and institutional strategy.
Comparative and International Political Economy	 analyzes the diversity of political-economic systems, taking into considering the historical contexts influence on them, and as path-dependent, and examines the impact of institutional (e.g. ideological and structural) differences on economies and civil society, and their consequences on economies and societies;  the focus lays on capitalism’s varieties within nation-states or regions, analyzing relationships between nation-states or regions, shaped by competition for resources in the global capitalist economy, showing how global nature of capitalism with a focus on national scales and institutions (methodological nationalism);  Process-based frameworks like global commodity chains and production networks analyze relational connections between diverse actors in production processes.
Cultural Political Economy	 Is based on the “cultural turn” in social sciences, using postmodern and poststructuralists critique discursive practices and manifestation of capitalist power, to contest traditional materialist perspectives, and put the significance of cultural dimensions (overlooked in traditional PE analyses), exploring the complex interplay between culture and economy;  Draws upon 4 different interpretations of the culture-economy relationship such as: a) the determination of culture by the economy; b) the embeddedness of economic processes in cultural meanings; c) the representation of the economy through cultural media such as symbols, signs and discourses; and, d) the production, circulation and consumption of cultural materials;  By integrating cultural meanings into material analyses, the aim is to see how dominant discourses, influenced by social values and power dynamics, reinforce social norms and reproduce dominant power relations, perpetuate existing structures of dominance.

Source: own elaboration based on Mosedale (2011, p. 25-35).

22To explore this, we draw upon arguments and concepts from the four PE approaches reviewed by Mosedale (2014), although not systematically, but rather in a free and experimental manner, to construct our heuristic framework. For instance, from Marxian PE, we employ the general logic of asymmetrical resource distribution and competition. From Regulation Theory, we consider the interplay between international and national spaces and how institutions manage them, particularly the State through public policies. From Comparative and International PE, we refer to the timeframe reference and how a path dependency trajectory can shape subsequent actions. Lastly, from Cultural PE, we focus on cultural, symbolic, and discursive aspects related to the political utilization of material resources.

23We argue that there is a convergence of outputs among micro, meso, and macro levels, influencing the possibilities of action for individual agents, social groups, organizations, and social systems. The level of empowerment or restriction within an actor’s immediate environment depends on the favorable conjunction of factors at each level. However, neither the convergence of all three levels nor the restrictions faced by an actor are sufficient or necessary due to the openness of reality, where hidden or unobservable elements may influence or counterbalance the system (Bhaskar, 2005). Nonetheless, in the absence of other factors, this convergence and structural conditioning (Archer, 2000) tend to steer the system along a certain trajectory, known as path dependency.

24In our proposal, the first level is the macrosocial, providing a kind of “conjuncture” analysis based on the international conjuncture, which denotes the state of forces at a given point in time. Despite enduring relations and structural factors (institutions, mechanisms and enduring relations) over time, we primarily view this as dynamic (or conjunctural) analysis due to its weak stability, diversity of actors, and potential for major changes in a short period. Beginning at the macrosocial level is crucial as it encompasses all smaller factors within this environment.

25Thus, we consider as the main factors playing a major in this scale (level), the following ones: a) the world economy (as one system), which means the integration of countries (national systems) in the world international trade system; b) the political regimes of the national states and their national policies for foreign affairs; c) the cultural repertoire and imaginary in the international system vis à vis the cultural (including religion as a subsystem) national values; d) and the relational time-space position of the national states in the world framework in a given moment in time, which means their particular position (location) in a geographic area as well as the timely opportunities open and accessible to them in a particular moment in time (history).

26In summary, based on a Critical Realism perspective (Bhaskar, 2005; Vandenberghe, 2013) focused on levels of reality and the problem of scale (Brante, 2001a, 2001b), we maintain that a convergence of factors—whether positive or negative—across different levels (micro, meso, and macro) (Brante, 2001; Ritzer, 2007) will enable and create conditions for action, both individual and collective (Pimentel, 2012; 2024), either facilitating or constraining it (Archer, 2001), within a pre-existing system of relations. This system can be reproduced or restructured, but it imposes limitations and selectivities (Jessop, 2005) on the possibilities for judgment, choice, decision-making, and implementation (Pimentel, 2012). For example, the convergence of positive factors at different levels (micro, meso, and macro) will enable and create empowering conditions for action, whether individual or collective, while a convergence of negative circumstances will limit the capacity for action (Pimentel, 2024).

II. The Political Economy of Tourism during the Workers Party Governments (Luís Inácio Lula da Silva 2003-2010 and Dilma Roussef 2011-2016*11)

A. The Analytic Model

28On the other hand, it is important to note that the level of tourism activity between countries is closely linked to the level of economic exchange between them. Thus, tourist flows tend to be more intense between geographically close regions and between those that, historically, already have a high volume of commercial exchange. In this sense, given that Brazil’s economy during the analyzed period was ranked as the 5th largest in the world, additional incremental tourist flows could potentially be achieved if the country were to lead global commercial exchanges.

29When considering the country’s role in (ii) international politics and national programs, the tensions between the government’s objectives related to social initiatives, external concerns, and development resumption, on one hand, and the orthodox emphasis on inflation control, which directs trade and fiscal surpluses towards servicing interest and debt, constituted a significant dimension of the Lula government, as noted by Martins (2007). It’s worth noting that Lula’s government retained the long-standing objectives prevalent in tourism policies since the 1930s, primarily focusing on attracting tourists and generating revenue (Pimentel and Pimentel, 2011). However, it also incorporated new priorities, such as emphasizing quality and competitiveness. The envisioned outcomes included the development of domestic tourism and an increase in international tourist arrivals. Yet, a key emphasis was placed on enhancing the industry’s competitiveness, both domestically and internationally. This was pursued to improved quality, productivity, and sustainability within the tourism sector (Pimentel & Pimentel, 2011; Pimentel et al., 2011; Pimentel & Pimentel, 2018).

30In 2003, with the establishment of the Ministry of Tourism, a notable shift was observed in the integration of sustainability criteria into the formulation and assessment of the national tourism policy. This marked a significant change in the government’s approach to tourism. Furthermore, when comparing direct investments in tourism to the FHC government, there was a substantial increase of 466.6% during this period (Pimentel et al., 2011; Pimentel & Pimentel, 2018).

31We can definitely assert for this period that tourism has become geopolitically one main strategy, not only for the sector itself, but also for the economy and diplomacy of the Lula government as well. It was because the number of international arrivals has finally increased significantly, having passed from 4,1 in 2003, to 6,5 million in 2016 (an increase of 60%). In the first term of President Lula’s government there was a rapid increase in the first year (around 30%), which was followed by a relative stabilization around 5 millions of international tourists per year, which is kept along its second term, with a slower, progressive and more sustained and well distributed increase along the whole period, reaching a new addition of around 36% (in relation to the previous term) (see Figure 3). Moreover, tourism come back as a ‘soft power’ strategy for diplomacy. Thus, now the “Brazil” brand is promoted not only as a paradisiacal country but as a new example of progress capable of reconciling economic imperatives with social and environmental requirements. In short, it is also projected as a lifestyle, defined by culture, diversity, openness, and joy. At the domestic level, two national plans were launched during this period (Pimentel et al., 2024).

32Despite that, one can assist the progressive inclusion of several and different actors getting involved with tourism. One signal of this shift of pattern was on the change of national policy, from the National Program of Tourism Municipalization to the National Program of Tourism Regionalization, which was based on regional touristic clusters of municipalities. This policy fosters the municipal association and also established some mechanisms, such as municipal board committees of tourism. Here for the first time, the number of Normative Acts of Tourism (TNA) reaches 1,000 per year, in the president Lula’s government, and surpasses 2,000 TNA in the president Dilma’s government (see Figure 4) (Pimentel et al., 2024). During this era of progressive governance, characterized by increased state intervention, tourism emerged as a deliberate strategic focus, and it reaches highest point ever in public federal administration, both in terms of TNA and in public investments. In sum, the national agenda on tourism in this period was positive and progressive one, having the government assume a major role in the process creating conditions facilitate the tourism sector expansion and qualitative changing (Pimentel et al., 2011; Pimentel & Pimentel, 2018).

33In tandem with national agenda, achieving a positive international image is a crucial outcome intended, which is usually linked to (iii) soft power, cultural leadership, and positive imaginary. Since its creation in 1966, Embratur has spearheaded Brazil’s promotion in global markets. However, its promotional narrative has evolved over time. In the 1970s, emphasis was in Rio de Janeiro and the Brazilian carnival, featuring a feminine image in marketing materials (Kajihara, 2010). By the 1980s, a sexualized portrayal of Brazilian women gained traction, alongside soccer, notably with Pelé named Brazil’s Tourism Ambassador. Targeting American and European markets, extensive hotel projects began on the northeast coast. Come the 1990s, ecotourism took the spotlight, aiming to diversify Brazil’s image beyond carnival and soccer, as main tourist attractions. By the decade’s end, Embratur shifted away from using sensual imagery of women in promotional materials, coinciding with a notable increase in international arrivals. From the 2000s onward, the focus shifted to promoting Brazil’s cultural and natural diversity (Kajihara, 2010), although international arrivals have gradually increased in a slower way.

34Over the past few years, we can identify a transformation in the type of image projected by the Brazilian federal government aimed at reaching the international tourism market. This shift moved away from an image based on promoting Brazilian women as a “tourist attraction,” transitioning through other symbols of national identity such as samba and soccer, and progressively diversifying and extending to other elements of the national identity repertoire, such as the forests and distinctive natural landscapes. In the wake of this “evolutionary” process, it can be argued that there has been a progressive alignment with what is considered politically correct according to the discourse of the global Western framework (for example, replacing the use of the female image as a “resource” to be exploited, something common in the 1970s and 1980s, but which began to be considered as a sexist and gender-oppressive discourse starting in the 1990s).

35Furthermore, this shift also reflects changes in the social imaginary as a result of (self and external) perceptions of national identity in a more positive light. Zerbielli (2016), for instance, highlights how this reconfiguration towards a positive social perception was underpinned by significant improvements in the standard of living experienced by the Brazilian population during the analyzed period. Likewise, major events, such as the 2014 World Cup and the 2016 Olympic Games, contributed to an eventual recalibration of the country’s external perception in a more positive direction. This was facilitated by Brazil’s strong presence in various arenas—academic and scientific (Hartmann, 2014), economic growth (The Economist, 2009; Kliass, 2012), social development (Neri, 2019; Ferreira et al., 2013), regional leadership, and international influence (Kliass, 2012; Council on Foreign Relations, n.d. [2022]; Leahy, 2011)—repositioning Brazil on the global stage (World Bank Group, 2017) with increased geopolitical capital and emerging leadership in terms of soft power. It is estimated that this increase in visibility also resulted in greater exposure in international media and, to some extent, a rise in the volume of international tourist inflows. However, an exact measurement of this relationship remains to be further explored.

III. Temporal and spatial constraints, opportunity windows, and path dependency trajectories

36When examining Brazil’s case during the mentioned period, it’s evident that structural temporal and spatial limitations, such as geographical positioning, coupled with the timing of Brazil’s emergence in the tourism industry, align with major macroeconomic periods of capital expansion and the growing international demand for tourism (da Silva, 2016). For instance, by the late 1990s, international tourism saw a notable surge due to Brazil’s market liberalization in the early part of the decade and the macroeconomic adjustments in the country following the introduction of its new currency, the REAL (Bresser-Pereira, 1994; Ianoni, 2009; Resende et al., 2018).

37Throughout the 2000s, amidst a relatively crisis-free global economy, Brazil significantly expanded its exports. This favorable structural macroeconomic backdrop (Dedecca, Trovão and Souza, 2014), coupled with progressive governance under Presidents Lula (2003-2006 and 2007-2010), led to the implementation of various strategies to bolster Brazil’s presence in international markets (Oliveira, 2015), including tourism, alongside robust social policies that facilitated the inclusion of a sizable portion of the population in the consumer market, thus fostering the emergence of a “new middle class” (Carta Capital, 2008), culminating with important social changes (Pochmann, 2011).

38Hence, opportunity windows emerge from leveraging favorable contexts to create new social and economic prospects. However, structural changes require time and are challenging to achieve in a short span; thus, the path dependency trajectory, linked to incomplete processes like industrialization and urbanization, and the external dependency, was disrupted by the significant real estate crisis in 2008, whose impacts on Brazil will appear on the next decade. The plummeting value of commodities (the backbone of the Brazilian economy) and the relatively high value of the Brazilian currency hindered the continuation of interventionist agendas, marking the onset of a new era in the 2010s (da Silva, 2016).

Table 2. Synthesis of the argument combining country’s position, national actions, soft power and opportunity windows, in the touristic and the national context (2003-2016).

Category	Tourism	General Background
Results (in a given context and a new conjuncture formation)	 High increase of inbound tourism from 4 to 6,8 million (around 70%)  Positive reconfiguration of Brazil’s external image (diversification and positive appreciation)  Expansion of the tourism sector’s organizational field and job creation	 Brazil became the 5th largest economy in the world  Economic growth led to the expansion of the internal market (36 million people lifted out of poverty, and other 45 million joined the middle class)
Temporal and Spatial Constraints, Opportunity Windows, and Path Dependency	 Tourism growth aligned with global macroeconomic expansion and increased international demand  Government policies enabled the tourism sector to expand, but geographic and structural constraints limited rapid growth	 Economic growth driven by rising global commodity prices from 2003 to 2008  After 2008, Brazil faced challenges due to the global financial crisis and a declining commodity market, impacting long-term development goals
Soft power, cultural leadership, and positive imaginary	 Brazil’s image abroad diversified: from a carnival and soccer hub to a more complex cultural and ecological identity - Events like the 2014 World Cup and 2016 Olympics enhanced international visibility and positive national identity	 Positive image and reputation in the international stage as leading player  “Soft power” strategy boosted by Brazil’s growing global role in diplomacy  Brazil played an influential role in BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa) and regional leadership in South America
International politics and national programs	 Establishment of the Ministry of Tourism in 2003  466.6% increase in tourism investment compared to previous administration  Increasing of the Normative Acts of Tourism (16.343 NAT, % all times)  National tourism policies emphasized sustainability, quality, and competitiveness	 Progressive governance under the Workers’ Party increased social inclusion and reduced inequality  Brazil took a leadership role in international politics through active participation in multilateral organizations and forging new trade agreements
Country’s position in the international economic scenario	 Despite growth, Brazil’s global market share in tourism remained modest, with higher tourist numbers in countries like Argentina, Uruguay and Chile  Brazil leveraged economic growth to increase international tourist flows	 Brazil’s economic boom was supported by high global demand for commodities and favorable global market conditions until the 2008 financial crisis affected growth trajectories

Source: own elaboration.

39The interplay between a country’s position in the international economic scenario, its international politics and national programs, its soft power and cultural leadership, and the temporal and spatial constraints it faces forms a critical framework for understanding its developmental outcomes. These factors do not operate in isolation but rather in a dynamic and interdependent process that shapes the conditions for action. The country’s position in the global economic order sets the foundational structural limits and opportunities, influencing the effectiveness of subsequent national policies and international strategies. National programs and political actions, designed to address both internal needs and external pressures, leverage this position to create a more favorable environment for development. However, the degree of success depends on how well these policies align with global dynamics and national goals.

40Soft power and cultural leadership act as reinforcing mechanisms, projecting a country’s image and values to strengthen its position within the international community. This contributes to the perception and reception of the country’s efforts on the global stage, which, in turn, can either bolster or undermine political and economic initiatives. Temporal and spatial constraints, in a given situation (moment of action) such as historical timing and geographic location, introduce further variability, often acting as mediating factors that moderate the impact of national programs and soft power efforts. These constraints can accelerate or decelerate progress depending on how well a country adapts to shifting global and local conditions, as well as can be selective in terms of information, choices and actions possibles in a given moment in time (see figure 6).

41This analysis can take place in different temporal and spatial scales, as structural factors created, institutionalized and maintained for large periods (structural), for mid-term periods (conjunctural factors) which refers to the time to routinize and establish one provisory order, and then the short time scale (situational factors) which refer to the moment or episodic action which is taken in a given moment in time.

42For example, Brazil, during the 2003-2016 period, illustrates how these factors interact in a dynamic process. First, Brazil’s relatively modest position in the global tourism market, constrained by geographical and economic factors, set a structural baseline that limited its ability to rapidly scale tourism activity. This initial position is a structural conditioning factor because it excludes some alternatives as well as moderate the existing possibilities. Thus, in the best scenario, proactive national programs, such as the establishment of the Ministry of Tourism and a marked increase in public investment, leveraged political will and economic growth to stimulate sectoral expansion.

44With a predominantly favorable macrosocial environment during most of the analyzed period, combined with proactive actions by the federal government, as well as positive symbolic elements that reinforced previous actions, which led to a considerable increase in the number of international tourists, the economic outcome, however, was negative. So, can you imagine how much worse it would have been if the macro conditions, the lack of an engaged government and its policies, and a negative image had been present?

45In short, the positive alignment of political initiatives and soft power strategies marginally offset structural constraints to generate favorable, yet limited, results. Ultimately, the success or failure of these efforts hinges on the specific combination of these factors. A more favorable mix of economic positioning, political strategy, and soft power could lead to even stronger outcomes, while negative shifts in any of these realms might hinder progress and limit long-term benefits. Thus, each phase or “round” of action is shaped by the causal powers of the preceding factors, structuring the conditions for future opportunities or challenges. In Brazil’s case, even having a positive confluence of factors, the economic outcome was still which lead us to quest the role, purpose and the real meaning of tourism in terms of development.

Conclusions and Recommendations

46Studies on PET are scarce, fragmented and uses different frameworks and perspectives to analyze how tourism has been social and politically used. This paper tried to develop a comprehensive framework, in a more integrated and cohesive way, incorporating different types of objects at various levels of reality, to deal with the phenomena recurring to different scales, in order to understand the political economy of tourism, its conditions, morphology and contradictions.

47In this conceptual paper we took as an example Brazil’s case, focusing on the Workers Party Governments (Luís Inácio Lula da Silva 2003-2010 and Dilma Roussef 2011-2016), which was identified previously by Pimentel et al. (2024) as one of the most important periods in Brazil’s national agenda for tourism. In this context we have used secondary data available to illustrate the thesis here defended, which is: structural long-standing factors (macro level) will create a basis over which a possible set of combinations (meso level) in which organizations will interact and shape their environment, establish standards and institutionalize a field. This paper focused on aspects related to the macrostructural factors related to how tourism was used by Brazilian State in the first 15 years of 2000’s.

48The convergence of these factors—whether they are positive, intermediary, or mainly negative—directly influences the specific empirical outcomes observed in reality. Positive combinations tend to create empowering conditions for action, leading to more favorable results, while negative or intermediary combinations may introduce obstacles that limit progress. The results achieved at any given moment are thus the product of how effectively these elements align and interact, with each “round” of action being conditioned by the previous configurations and their causal powers. The outcomes, therefore, reflect the cumulative influence of these intertwined factors, shaping the future possibilities for development.

49The model presented here was made up by the following layers and categories. In terms of macroeconomic, social and political factors, we observed that Brazil has achieved the place of 5^th biggest economy in 2000’s and its internal national economy was changed by taking 35 millions of people from the poverty and the inclusion of other 45 millions of people in the middle class, formal labor economy, and consumption (Neri, 2008; 2019; Souza, 2018). Additionally, Brazil’s role in the international politics leadership in this period was also a factor of its promotion, increasing influence over other countries, new commerce agreements, etc. Moreover, all of these actions have impact on the soft power, cultural leadership, and positive imagery that Brazil has create in 2000’s. This “positive agenda” was also reflected on the Brazil’s image abroad and on the number of international tourists the country received (which reached for the first time the 8 million in one year). These macrostructural processes were removing obstacles that remained for centuries. The relatively long period of crisis absence and political progressist agenda was as match of positive combination of timespace constraints and opportunity window (respectively) experienced in the case mentioned.

50However, the brief period of one decade and half was not enough to revert completely the path dependency trajectory based on the incomplete process (which were again interrupted due the new global crisis in 2008), which will start to revert the basic conditions of action to the subsequent governmental action, its choices and results. This new turning point will make visible its effects in the second half of the 2010’s decade. Moreover, even given the positive confluence of the categories analyzed allowed major outcomes —ranging from a 60% increase in inbound tourism to the broader diversification of Brazil’s international image— which changed the morphology and structure of tourism in Brazil, its real importance, its effects and possibilities to bolster the national development (by focusing on inbound tourism) is questionable.

51This contradiction may be explained, according to our interpretative framework, this transformation stemmed from the positive alignment of macrosocial factors, including the absence of crisis, coupled with international economic expansion driven by demand, and a progressive national strategy, but oriented by the inbound tourism. However, despite the relative success experienced, these positive outcomes are related to the profound adoption of managerialism and neoliberal forms of utilizing tourism. As Lapointe et al. (2018) demonstrate, applying Hardt and Negri’s Empire analysis on tourism studies, through the three phases – integration, diversification, and management processes – one can observe the relative positive outcomes in Brazil as a normative adoption of the neoliberal agenda. Thus, in order to succeed, the more one aligns oneself with the doxa and the rules of the game, the more eligible they become to be rewarded by the system. On the other hand, this relative successful episode is so just when analyzed unilaterally, based on the inbound tourism. When considered the outbound tourism it becomes still more evident the fragility of the managerial model. So, at this point, one question arises: is it possible to succeed by adhering to the rules of the game while simultaneously challenging them? Also, while the tourism policies of the era in Brazil leads to positive outcome in terms of tourism flow, and raised political influence at the global level, at subnational levels the tourism policies development where unequally received, aligning culture with global tourism market leaving some outside while favoring “competitive” on the global market cultural expressions like samba, or football. This proceed to a hierarchization of the subnational space through compatibility of place and culture with the global reach of tourism market.

52As Pimentel et al. (2024, p. 165) point out:

Underlying this situation there is a systemic contradiction. Use tourism as a development tool, is necessary to “make it work”, by gaining effi­ciency and scalability. This requires adherence to the doxa, established norms and the rules of the game, which involves integrating into the market, attracting mass tourism, and expanding and diversifying its organizational field. In doing so, a diffuse network of actors and interests is created and expanded, who, upon entering the game as it is at a certain moment, become dependent on this struc­ture and its conditions for maintenance. Once established, it becomes dependent on these same economic conditions (mass consumption and dependence on for­eign markets). This situation leads to a predominance of resultant forces in the inertial tendency to maintain the direction and movement of the field according to the doxa that guides it, which in turn progressively reduces the possibility of doing it differently. In short, to make tourism a passport for development, it must put it to work, and the more it “functions” well into the capitalist system the more it becomes dependent of this macroeconomic structures and the more it is difficult to use it for another way (e.g. social purpose).

53Future studies could explore the existence of a turning point in each category proposed, the passage between them, as well as and the difference of weights for each phase. Empirical studies would be welcomed in order to test, revise and eventually add new categories in this initial, propaedeutic and heuristic model, either using other periods in Brazil’s case or applying the proposed framework to other regions (e.g. North America, Europe, Asia, etc.) and scales (e.g. countries, states, regions and cities).